Mid-Season Targets and ADP Smashers

In the competitive world of fantasy football, identifying players who will outperform their average draft position (ADP) can be the secret to winning your league. This season, I've pinpointed several "Mid-Season Risers"—players set for a production surge around the halfway mark of the season. In this article, I'll highlight these potential breakout stars and explain why they should be on your radar for both drafts and mid-season trades.

Trey Benson (Sleeper ADP 105.0; RB30):

With the 66th selection, the Arizona Cardinals selected Trey Benson to help plug any holes in the Cardinals RB room. He was the 2nd RB taken in the NFL Draft with some respectable combine numbers (4.39 40 at 6’0” 216 lbs). Despite the impressive production that James Conner had, I believe this year is the year his wheels fall off. This is the last year of Conner’s contract with an $8.9 million cap hit – so don’t get me wrong, the role will not be gifted to Trey Benson. Throughout his career, whenever he’s been given the majority of the workload, he has exceeded expectations, running above 4 YPC in 5 out of his 6 seasons (disregarding his rookie year since he was running behind Le’Veon Bell). Ironically, the one year he ran a 3.72 YPC was his best year with an RB5 finish in half and full PPR formats. But let’s address the elephant in the room. The term “injury-prone” is thrown around too much in today’s NFL, but this guy has played 13 games or less in 5 of the last 6 seasons. In a 17-game season, this opens the door for Trey Benson to showcase his skills. With Conner's history of missing games, Benson could be called upon early to step up. With no fear of a backup, he would immediately be left with the majority of the James Conner role which we have seen produce high fantasy numbers. It is a little cheap to call a handcuff a mid-season riser, but based on trends of aging running backs, I think he will be the better player on the field and help the Cardinals in their attempts to jumpstart this offense. Keep an eye on Benson as he might be a sneaky mid-season trade target that could really pay off.

Bucky Irving (Sleeper ADP 220.8; RB59):

This might just be a Rachaad White hit piece and less of a Bucky Irving hype segment. Okay, I get it… Rachaad White was the RB4 in PPR leagues last year! Both Cordarrelle Patterson and Antonio Gibson were top 10 RBs in 2021, only to finish as RB30 or higher since. Miracles happen! But we, as fantasy managers, have to understand the difference between talent and volume, and talent is exactly what Rachaad White is lacking. Now, I realize I am in no position to tell a professional football player if he is talented or not, but by comparison, there are some MAJOR red flags. Rachaad White finished the year with a Yards per Carry (YPC) of 3.64. There isn’t a single running back that finished in the top 25 with lower YPC numbers. Even Brian Robinson, in his rookie season, AFTER GETTING SHOT IN HIS LEG, had 3.89 YPC. Now I know what you all are going to say… “Oh, he is a receiving back so yards per carry doesn’t matter.” Well, what if I told you that Rachaad White and Christian McCaffrey had the same number of rushing attempts in 2023, but we only call Rachaad White a receiving back. Look at what PewterReport (credentialed Bucs media) had to say about Rachaad White: “In fact, Tampa Bay wants White to play more like Bucky Irving does… (Irving) bursts and accelerates through the hole and can make people miss” (@PewterReport). Bucky Irving was 1st in the RB class in missed tackles at the collegiate level and will be a great change of pace back for the Buccaneers in 2024. Now, I’m not saying Bucky Irving will be a home run fantasy player, but there is a world where he gets 7-13 touches a game and really makes an impact as Tampa Bay’s interior rusher, smashing his currently undrafted ADP. As he starts taking touches away from Rachaad White, Irving becomes the perfect mid-season trade target. Targeting him mid-season when he’s likely to see increased touches could turn him into a mid-season fantasy darling.

Malik Nabers (Sleeper ADP 35.7; WR20):

It’s tough to consider Malik Nabers as an ADP riser because he's already being drafted pretty high. Over the last four years, an average of only 2.25 rookie wide receivers per year have finished in the top 24 at the position, and Malik Nabers is being drafted with that expectation. Granted, many analysts had him as a similar, if not better, prospect to the highly touted Marvin Harrison Jr., the first wide receiver picked in the 2024 draft class, so the talent is there in Malik Nabers. My argument is that he will be a great mid-season target as I predict he starts slow and finishes strong. Being drafted to the New York Giants was probably the worst thing that could’ve happened to his rookie season. The best wide receiver finish under Daniel Jones was WR35, Darius Slayton, in 2019, both during their rookie seasons. Now, I understand that Malik is head and shoulders better than any option Daniel Jones has ever had, but I still think this is an area of concern. The problem isn’t Malik; it’s the situation. Can the Giants roll out a new high-flying, efficient offense that can support a top 24 wide receiver now that Daniel Jones finally has a true WR1? Probably not. But there is a world where he opens up the offense and Malik becomes the target hog, propelling himself up the fantasy leaderboards solely from receptions and yards after the catch (YAC). Absolutely! I’m staying away from Malik at his current ADP because it’s simply too rich for my blood in this situation, but when the Giants figure out how to get the ball into the hands of their most talented guy as the season progresses, Malik Nabers could explode. Snag him when his stock is low, and you’ll reap the benefits of his late season surge.

Jaylen Warren (Sleeper ADP 98.1; RB31):

Not only is Jaylen Warren one of my top mid-season trade targets, but he is also one of the biggest sleepers this year compared to his ADP, currently being drafted as the 31st running back off the board. While Arthur Smith (nicknamed the fantasy killer) is at the helm, the only beneficiary seems to be the RB2 for his team. This is the man who gave Tyler Allgeier 10.9 rushing attempts per game, while Bijan Robinson only received 13.4 attempts per game (excluding the infamous headache game). In my humble opinion, Jaylen Warren should be the RB1 on this team. The team seems to view this backfield as a 1a/1b situation, which is blasphemy! Warren has shown significant improvement in nearly every aspect of his game year over year, while Najee Harris has been on the decline. Over the past three years, Najee's snap share has noticeably decreased, whereas Warren's has been steadily rising. We're on pace for a true 50/50 backfield, and Warren is clearly the more dynamic back. Data from @FantasyPtsData on X shows that Jaylen Warren ranked 1st in missed tackles forced per touch (MTF/touch) with 0.35 and 1st in yards after catch generated per touch (YACO/touch) with 3.26 among qualifying running backs in 2023. Meanwhile, Najee Harris ranks 20th in MTF/touch with 0.22 and 17th in YACO/touch with 2.72. I expect Jaylen Warren's production to rise significantly, along with his passing volume. Under Russell Wilson, the Denver Broncos led the NFL in running back targets, and I believe he will replicate that with the Steelers. Warren averaged almost double the targets of Najee and was much more dynamic with the ball. While Jaylen Warren might start the season a bit slow, adjusting to a new QB and offensive coordinator, I’m confident he’ll break through any early struggles as the season progresses. Once he finds his groove in the new offense, his workload in both rushing and receiving will skyrocket. Trading for him mid-season, after a potentially sluggish start, could be the sneaky move that wins your league as I suspect he will SMASH his ADP.