Top 5 Dynasty Sells for 2024

What is a Dynasty Sell?

A dynasty sell involves trading a player who is currently valued higher than their true worth. This overvaluation can stem from irreplicable efficiency in previous seasons, quarterback changes, coaching shifts, and other factors. Essentially, it's about selling a player at their peak value before their potential decline.

1. CJ Stroud (ADP: QB3)

Alright, this one really hurts because I'm a huge fan of Stroud. This isn't a knock on CJ Stroud's talent at all—simply from a fantasy football perspective. Remember at the start of the season when everyone thought the Texans would be bottom feeders? That made their trade for the 2024 first-round pick (to move up for Will Anderson in the 2023 NFL Draft) look insane. But then Stroud worked his magic and dragged this team to their first playoff appearance since 2019. With one of the most impressive rookie QB seasons I've ever seen, it almost feels illegal to label him as a dynasty sell. The consensus rankings have him as the Dynasty QB3, and that's why he’s on this list. He just doesn't run enough to hang with the elite fantasy QBs. Let me break it down: Rushing QBs are fantasy football cheat codes—just look at Justin Fields. One of the worst pure QBs in the NFL was still putting up top 5 fantasy numbers every week. Now, let's talk about Stroud's ceiling. Best case, he has a season like Joe Burrow in 2022, with 400 more passing yards, 13 more TDs, nearly 100 more rushing yards, and 2 more rushing TDs than Stroud last year. Sounds like a big leap, right? That would put him at QB4 in his best-case scenario… lower than where he's currently ranked. It's just a hefty price to pay for a non-rushing QB in the top 3 of any dynasty draft. Stroud would need to throw for over 5,000 yards and 30+ TDs to justify his draft spot, which is nearly impossible to do consistently. You could receive a haul and a half for what CJ Stroud is currently going at – and love it or not, the overvalued haul is better for your dynasty team.

2. Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP: WR5)

Alright, I know you're probably thinking, "How could CJ Stroud and Marvin Harrison possibly be Dynasty Sells?" Well, this is what happens when players get overvalued. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going as the WR5 in dynasty startups. THE WIDE RECEIVER 5! He has the highest redraft and dynasty ADP of any receiver in NFL history. The hype is absolutely bonkers. The guy hasn’t even played an NFL snap yet. I know what you are going to say “oh but his draft capital was so high! He can’t bust”, May I remind you of some certain wide receivers taken in the first 10 picks that did not turn out so well:

·         Corey Davis – 5th overall

·         Mike Williams – 7th overall

·         John Ross – 9th overall

·         Kevin White – 7th overall

·         Sammy Watkins – 4th overall

To say these high picks are ‘unbustable’ is overly optimistic and shortsighted. Now, this isn't a dig at MHJ's talent—this kid is a superstar and has had his Hall of Fame dad coaching him his entire life. Sure, there’s a chance his rookie season could be phenomenal—think 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs, making him the dynasty WR1. But let’s be real, only three wide receivers in the last 20 years have hit those numbers as rookies. Betting on MHJ to achieve what some of the greatest wide receivers couldn’t is just not smart drafting. Right now, he's being drafted at his absolute ceiling. Even if he flops next year, his value will likely hold due to his high prospect status so he is not an immediate dynasty sell, but he needs to perform at his peak to maintain this value. Look at Puka Nacua—he had 1,486 yards, 6 TDs, 105 receptions, and he's being drafted BEHIND Marvin Harrison Jr. I know getting MHJ is the ‘sexy’ pick but the smart play would be trade him for someone like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Puka + and enjoy the returns from cashing in on a rookie's inflated value.

3. Rachaad White (ADP: RB14)

Ah, we meet again, Rachaad. To me, he's the most obvious sell-high candidate on this list. His absurd volume last season completely masked some pretty concerning stats. He had a 15% missed tackles forced rate, a 9% elusive run rate, and averaged just 3.64 yards per carry. Finishing as the RB4 in PPR is simply not sustainable with those kinds of numbers. I love what @DynastyZoltan on X said about him: “White doesn’t have the talent to keep that type of volume. Think Najee two years ago.” This comparison is spot-on. Najee Harris had a monster rookie year due to volume, but his efficiency was lacking, and we saw a significant drop-off. What makes Rachaad even more overvalued is his backup, Bucky Irving. Bucky is a stud in his own right and doesn't need to be spectacular to cut into White's workload significantly. Let’s not forget why White was successful: volume, volume, volume! If Bucky is even moderately effective, he will siphon off a good chunk of the rushing workload from White. The absolute peak we saw from Rachaad White is likely as good as it gets. TRADE HIM NOW while his value is still this high. Don’t get caught holding the bag when the regression inevitably hits.

4. Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR14)

Mr. Efficient, I mean Brandon Aiyuk, is a tricky sell-high target now because of his trade rumors and contract issues. Last season, Aiyuk averaged 17.89 yards per catch while hauling in 71% of his targets. This speaks to his talent, but these numbers are very difficult to replicate. Last season was not his first hyper-efficient season, but it is nearly impossible to project this level of efficiency year over year. If I were to bank on anything, he is likely to regress from his previous numbers. The next wrinkle is the trade discussions. There have been strong trade rumors surrounding Aiyuk all off-season, involving a disgruntled Brandon Aiyuk doing his best Fresh Prince impression, “Why don’t they want me, man?” on Instagram Live. It really feels like Aiyuk believes he will be traded. This brings us back to the question: is his efficiency a product of his talents, or the amazing system that Kyle Shanahan has sustained for years? I’m going to assume the system is most of it. If Brandon Aiyuk gets traded, it is safe to say his production will fall immensely compared to the production he saw in San Francisco's offensive scheme. So, the WR14 is putting up unsustainably efficient numbers and has a high chance of getting moved to a significantly less favorable situation? Yeah, sell him now to the next manager before his value starts to fall.

5. Pat Freiermuth (ADP: TE13)

Pat Freiermuth is the perfect dynasty sell candidate, primarily because Arthur Smith is stepping in as Offensive Coordinator. Remember how much of a mess Arthur Smith made of Kyle Pitts’ value? Despite the Falcons having the 3rd most tight end targets last year, none of those tight ends were relevant for fantasy. Smith uses tight ends in such a bizarre way that I think Darnell Washington will likely take targets away from Pat. Don’t get me wrong—Pat is a solid talent and can thrive in the perfect environment. But he’s not the guy to overcome tough situations. His unstable red zone targets have hurt his fantasy value consistently. In 2021, 25.3% of his targets were in the red zone, but in 2022-2023, that dropped to just 11%. As a tight end who can’t create his own targets and with inconsistent red zone usage, he’s a perfect sell-high candidate. So, try and trade him to another manager by using the ‘Arthur Smith loves tight end targets’ and “the Steelers upgraded at QB” narratives and try to get max value for him while you still can.

Conclusion 

Navigating the dynasty landscape requires sharp insights and timely decisions. Identifying overvalued players and trading them at their peak value can significantly enhance your team's long-term prospects. CJ Stroud, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rachaad White, Brandon Aiyuk, and Pat Freiermuth are all prime examples of players whose current hype may not be sustainable. By capitalizing on their inflated values now, you can secure more reliable assets that will bolster your dynasty team for seasons to come. Always remember, the key to dynasty success is not just about acquiring talent, but knowing when to sell high and optimize your roster.